Swine flu: Did the system work?

For seasonal and H1N1 flu vaccine sites, check with your doctor or www.masspro.org

The NY Times reports that:

Although it is too early to write the obituary for swine flu, medical experts, already assessing how the first pandemic in 40 years has been handled, have found that while luck played a part, a series of rapid but conservative decisions by federal officials worked out better than many had dared hoped.

Herein Mass, find a couple of interesting factoids in the state’s latest flu report.

As of Dec. 30, the DPH reports that “after an intense peak of activity associated with circulation of 2009 H1N1, ILI (influenza-type illness) has decreased dramatically and for the past two weeks has been in line with what is normally seen at this time of year.”

In mid-Dec, only 17 percent of the cases tests positive from H1N1, compared to 58 percent of cases in early November. In real numbers that’s 42 cases in for the first week of November compared to two in December.

The region with the highest percentages of reported flu symptoms so far this season is the “Outer Boston Metro” region, with 6.7 percent of all cases, compared to 1.8 percent last season. That is worth exploring. Were suburbanites more likely to report the flu or more likely to get it?

The Wall Street Journal ended the year of the flu with this report on the situation outside of the North America and Western Europe,

Global health officials’ response to the swine-flu pandemic reflects major improvements in flu-fighting capabilities in recent years, but limited vaccine supplies, crowded emergency rooms, and other challenges show they still aren’t fully equipped to combat a deadlier scourge, the World Health Organization’s chief said.

While a second wave of infections caused by the H1N1 virus has ebbed in North America and Western Europe, transmission of flu remains intense in Central and Eastern Europe and parts of southern Asia, and health authorities must monitor its spread for another year or more, WHO Director-General Margaret Chan said in an interview this week.

New DPH report: Flu cases on the decline

The state reports that that “although ILI (influenza like illness) activity seems to have peaked and is on a decline, activity is still at a level that is significantly higher than what was seen at the same time during the last two years.”

From DPH: Confirmed Influenza cases in Massachusetts, October 4, 2009  – November 19, 2009

	H1N1: Age group (N)	H1N1: Pregnant (N)	H1N1: Hospitalized (N)	H1N1: Deaths (N)	Seasonal and Untyped Influenza by Age Group (N)
0-4 years	58	0	30	1	459
5-12 years	87	0	43	0	1105
13-18 years	59	0	20	0	717
19-25 years	60	2	7	0	397
26-44 years	39	2	10	1	581
45-64 years	38	0	17	2	386
65+ years	9	0	4	1	83
Unknown	0	0	0	0	24
TOTAL	350	4	131	5	3752

 

DPH: More H1N1 vaccine arrives in state, still not enough

From the DPH

As of this past weekend, the state has received just over 1 million doses of the H1N1 vaccine. However, this is still less than one third of the total amount of vaccine we have ordered. Each week we receive tens of thousands of vaccine doses in our state but we need hundreds of thousands, and eventually millions, to fully address the need.  According to the latest projections from the federal government, we will see a significant increase in the volume of doses in our vaccine shipments by the second week in December. 

Since it first became available in small amounts in early October, most of the vaccine has been sent to clinical settings.   But because there are thousands of clinical settings that share these shipments, none of them receive enough.  In general, the size of the shipment that a clinical site receives each week is a reflection of the number of patients in the targeted priority groups that it cares for.  However, this varies somewhat based upon the type of vaccine that becomes available each week.  For instance, pregnant women can’t take nasal flu vaccine sprays: so if the only vaccine available is the nasal spray, we cannot send that new quantity to OB/GYNs.  It can however, be administered to healthy children, and would therefore be sent to pediatricians. Regrettably, given the changeability of the production processes we don’t know what amounts or what formulations of vaccine doses will become available ahead of time.  This makes it very difficult for clinical practices to plan ahead or to notify their patients of what to expect.

En Espanol: Disponibilidade da vacina H1N1 em Massachusetts

 

Mass docs and clinics start scheduling H1N1 vaccines for high risk groups

Check here from latest clinics: From Masspro.org

Nov. 12: WBUR asks: Has Swine Flu Peaked in Mass? The NYTimes had a story in September predicting it would peack in October. The state comes out with its new numbers tomorrow.

New CDC numbers: CDC estimates that between 14 million and 34 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 22 million people infected with 2009 H1N1.

CDC estimates that between about 63,000 and 153,000 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 98,000 H1N1-related hospitalizations.

CDC estimates that between about 2,500 and 6,000 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 3,900 2009 H1N1-related deaths.

The Wall Street Journal blog puts them in context.

 

Nov. 8 – Globe story on how the state’s distributing the vaccine.

It takes into account which of eight different vaccine formulations are being made available by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the agency that buys all the doses and functions as the national clearinghouse. Some doses are for infants and toddlers. Some can be used only in children and adults with no underlying health conditions, such as asthma. Some are for nearly everyone.

How to get one:  H1N1 vaccine clinics are being scheduled next week in some towns for those at  high risk, mostly pregnant women. Updated info from the state DPH here.